VST Vistra Corp.
Utilities
Price
$145.12
Intrinsic value
$43.85
Buy price
$35.08
Discount
-231.0%
DCF walkthrough
Near-term growth (g1)0.00%
Terminal growth (g2)3.50%
Years of g1 growth4
Discount rate9.00%
Margin of safety20.00%
- Operating CF
- $5,121,000,000.00
- Total debt
- $20,566,999,040.00
- Cash & STI
- $658,000,000.00
- Shares out.
- 339,230,976
Overvalued [LOW CF reliability]
Intrinsic value$43.83
Buy price (with MOS)$35.06
Current price$145.12
Discount to intrinsic value-231.1%
7-step quality scorecard
ROE quality
HIGH_VOLATILE- Average ROE
- 17.3%
- Current ROE
- 18.5%
- Minimum ROE
- -25.0%
Debt quality
LEVERAGED- Debt / Equity
- 4.04x
Moat proxy
MODERATE_PROXYCash-flow reliability
LOW- Operating CF / Net income
- 2.53x
Technical chart
Confluence: DOWNTREND (0/3)Weekly candles, ~3 years. Yellow line: 10-week EMA. Dashed lines: Fibonacci retracement of the last 52-week swing. Green arrow: an active DR1 support reclaim.
Assumptions & data quality
- Data source
- yfinance
- Growth (g1) source
- min(cfCAGR,revenueCAGR)+trough_adj
- Valuation model
- DCF_OCF
- Debt as % of DCF PV
- 59.1%
- Public economic interest
- 99.7%
These are model outputs built on assumptions (growth rate, discount rate, margin of safety), not facts - trust but verify, especially for LOW cash-flow-reliability or UNKNOWN-quality rows.