UPS United Parcel Service, Inc.
Industrials
Price
$93.11
Intrinsic value
$42.55
Buy price
$34.04
Discount
-118.8%
Live signals
Daily bars as of Oct 8, 2026Nothing firing right now - no PAM pattern in the last 5 daily bars, and no DR1 support reclaim in the last 5 weekly bars. Technical confluence is DOWNTREND (1/3) - see the chart below.
DCF walkthrough
Near-term growth (g1)0.00%
Terminal growth (g2)3.50%
Years of g1 growth4
Discount rate9.00%
Margin of safety20.00%
- Operating CF
- $8,867,000,000.00
- Total debt
- $28,672,999,424.00
- Cash & STI
- $4,653,000,192.00
- Shares out.
- 851,000,000
Overvalued
Intrinsic value$42.54
Buy price (with MOS)$34.03
Current price$93.11
Discount to intrinsic value-118.9%
7-step quality scorecard
ROE quality
HIGH_CONSISTENT- Average ROE
- 41.5%
- Current ROE
- 34.3%
- Minimum ROE
- 34.3%
Debt quality
LEVERAGED- Debt / Equity
- 1.77x
Moat proxy
MODERATE_PROXYCash-flow reliability
OK- Operating CF / Net income
- 1.94x
Technical chart
Confluence: DOWNTREND (1/3)Weekly candles, ~3 years. Yellow line: 10-week EMA. Dashed lines: Fibonacci retracement of the last 52-week swing. Green arrow: an active DR1 support reclaim (see Live signals above for when it fired).
Assumptions & data quality
- Data source
- yfinance
- Growth (g1) source
- min(cfCAGR,revenueCAGR)
- Valuation model
- DCF_OCF
- Debt as % of DCF PV
- 47.6%
- Public economic interest
- 99.8%
These are model outputs built on assumptions (growth rate, discount rate, margin of safety), not facts - trust but verify, especially for LOW cash-flow-reliability or UNKNOWN-quality rows.