ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc.
Consumer Cyclical
Price
$546.61
Intrinsic value
$195.20
Buy price
$156.16
Discount
-180.0%
DCF walkthrough
Near-term growth (g1)0.47%
Terminal growth (g2)3.50%
Years of g1 growth4
Discount rate9.00%
Margin of safety20.00%
- Operating CF
- $1,544,653,000.00
- Total debt
- $2,302,443,008.00
- Cash & STI
- $221,300,000.00
- Shares out.
- 43,964,000
Overvalued
Intrinsic value$195.22
Buy price (with MOS)$156.17
Current price$546.61
Discount to intrinsic value-180.0%
7-step quality scorecard
ROE quality
HIGH_DISTORTED- Average ROE
- 52.4%
- Current ROE
- 41.1%
- Minimum ROE
- 41.1%
Debt quality
MODERATE- Debt / Equity
- 0.82x
Moat proxy
WEAK_PROXYCash-flow reliability
OK- Operating CF / Net income
- 1.30x
Technical chart
Confluence: DOWNTREND (1/3)Weekly candles, ~3 years. Yellow line: 10-week EMA. Dashed lines: Fibonacci retracement of the last 52-week swing. Green arrow: an active DR1 support reclaim.
Assumptions & data quality
- Data source
- yfinance
- Growth (g1) source
- min(cfCAGR,revenueCAGR)
- Valuation model
- DCF_OCF
- Debt as % of DCF PV
- 21.6%
- Public economic interest
- 100.0%
These are model outputs built on assumptions (growth rate, discount rate, margin of safety), not facts - trust but verify, especially for LOW cash-flow-reliability or UNKNOWN-quality rows.