ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc.
Consumer Cyclical
Price
$547.29
Intrinsic value
$197.67
Buy price
$158.14
Discount
-176.9%
Live signals
Daily bars as of Oct 8, 2026Nothing firing right now - no PAM pattern in the last 5 daily bars, and no DR1 support reclaim in the last 5 weekly bars. Technical confluence is DOWNTREND (1/3) - see the chart below.
DCF walkthrough
Near-term growth (g1)0.47%
Terminal growth (g2)3.50%
Years of g1 growth4
Discount rate9.00%
Margin of safety20.00%
- Operating CF
- $1,567,827,000.00
- Total debt
- $2,524,030,976.00
- Cash & STI
- $213,451,008.00
- Shares out.
- 43,062,000
Overvalued
Intrinsic value$197.69
Buy price (with MOS)$158.16
Current price$547.29
Discount to intrinsic value-176.8%
7-step quality scorecard
ROE quality
HIGH_DISTORTED- Average ROE
- 52.4%
- Current ROE
- 41.1%
- Minimum ROE
- 41.1%
Debt quality
MODERATE- Debt / Equity
- 0.90x
Moat proxy
WEAK_PROXYCash-flow reliability
OK- Operating CF / Net income
- 1.30x
Technical chart
Confluence: DOWNTREND (1/3)Weekly candles, ~3 years. Yellow line: 10-week EMA. Dashed lines: Fibonacci retracement of the last 52-week swing. Green arrow: an active DR1 support reclaim (see Live signals above for when it fired).
Assumptions & data quality
- Data source
- yfinance
- Growth (g1) source
- min(cfCAGR,revenueCAGR)
- Valuation model
- DCF_OCF
- Debt as % of DCF PV
- 23.3%
- Public economic interest
- 100.0%
These are model outputs built on assumptions (growth rate, discount rate, margin of safety), not facts - trust but verify, especially for LOW cash-flow-reliability or UNKNOWN-quality rows.