TWLO Twilio Inc.

Technology

Price

$275.77

Intrinsic value

$71.41

Buy price

$57.13

Discount

-286.2%

Overvalued

Live signals (2)

Daily bars as of Oct 8, 2026

Stacked bullish ↑

FS-BullishFailure Swing (bullish)Bullish ↑
Price undercut a recent swing low and closed back above it - the breakdown failed and trapped the sellers who chased it.
Fired Oct 5, 20263 daily bars ago37.4% win rate · 1.07x profit factor
IBB-UpsideInside Bar Breakout (upside)Bullish ↑
An inside bar coiling inside a strong bullish mother bar, with price holding above the 50-day SMA - a pause before the next push up.
Fired Oct 2, 20264 daily bars ago29% win rate · 0.7x profit factor

A pattern is reported for 5 bars after it fires (the sweet-spot fill window), so an older bar count means the entry has had longer to play out - not that the signal is stronger. Win rate and profit factor are the pattern's backtested averages across the S&P 500, not a forecast for this ticker.

DCF walkthrough

Near-term growth (g1)9.81%

Terminal growth (g2)3.50%

Years of g1 growth4

Discount rate9.00%

Margin of safety20.00%

Operating CF: $1,060,709,000.00
Total debt: $1,065,518,976.00
Cash & STI: $2,656,329,984.00
Shares out.: 159,708,166

Overvalued

Intrinsic value$71.40

Buy price (with MOS)$57.12

Current price$275.77

Discount to intrinsic value-286.2%

7-step quality scorecard

ROE quality

LOW

Average ROE: -5.8%
Current ROE: 0.4%
Minimum ROE: -11.9%

Debt quality

CONSERVATIVE

Debt / Equity: 0.14x

Moat proxy

MODERATE_PROXY

Cash-flow reliability

Operating CF / Net income: 0.92x

Technical chart

Confluence: NONE (0/3)

Weekly candles, ~3 years. Yellow line: 10-week EMA. Dashed lines: Fibonacci retracement of the last 52-week swing. Green arrow: an active DR1 support reclaim (see Live signals above for when it fired).

Assumptions & data quality

Data source: yfinance
Growth (g1) source: revenueCAGR
Valuation model: DCF_OCF
Debt as % of DCF PV: 10.9%
Public economic interest: 100.0%

These are model outputs built on assumptions (growth rate, discount rate, margin of safety), not facts - trust but verify, especially for LOW cash-flow-reliability or UNKNOWN-quality rows.