RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical

Price

$288.78

Intrinsic value

$174.28

Buy price

$139.42

Discount

-65.7%

Overvalued

Live signals (4)

Daily bars as of Oct 8, 2026

Conflicting signalsStacked bullish ↑Stacked bearish ↓

FS-BullishFailure Swing (bullish)Bullish ↑
Price undercut a recent swing low and closed back above it - the breakdown failed and trapped the sellers who chased it.
Fired Oct 8, 2026on the latest daily bar37.4% win rate · 1.07x profit factor
FS-Bullish-Near_200SMAFailure Swing (bullish) at the 200-SMABullish ↑
Price undercut a recent swing low and closed back above it - the breakdown failed and trapped the sellers who chased it. Fired right at the 200-day SMA.
Fired Oct 8, 2026on the latest daily bar36.7% win rate · 1.04x profit factor
URUp-move ReversalBearish ↓
A swing high right after a sharp up-flush, with the bar closing weak - buyers exhausted at the top of the run.
Fired Oct 7, 20261 daily bar ago34.1% win rate · 0.92x profit factor
UR-Near_200SMAUp-move Reversal at the 200-SMABearish ↓
A swing high right after a sharp up-flush, with the bar closing weak - buyers exhausted at the top of the run. Fired right at the 200-day SMA.
Fired Oct 7, 20261 daily bar ago30.4% win rate · 0.79x profit factor

A pattern is reported for 5 bars after it fires (the sweet-spot fill window), so an older bar count means the entry has had longer to play out - not that the signal is stronger. Win rate and profit factor are the pattern's backtested averages across the S&P 500, not a forecast for this ticker.

DCF walkthrough

Near-term growth (g1)13.58%

Terminal growth (g2)3.50%

Years of g1 growth4

Discount rate9.00%

Margin of safety20.00%

Operating CF: $6,786,000,000.00
Total debt: $23,517,999,104.00
Cash & STI: $876,000,000.00
Shares out.: 268,000,000

Overvalued

Intrinsic value$174.35

Buy price (with MOS)$139.48

Current price$288.78

Discount to intrinsic value-65.6%

7-step quality scorecard

ROE quality

LOW

Average ROE: 10.3%
Current ROE: 42.5%
Minimum ROE: -75.1%

Debt quality

LEVERAGED

Debt / Equity: 2.34x

Moat proxy

WEAK_PROXY

Cash-flow reliability

Operating CF / Net income: 1.54x

Technical chart

Confluence: DOWNTREND (1/3)

Weekly candles, ~3 years. Yellow line: 10-week EMA. Dashed lines: Fibonacci retracement of the last 52-week swing. Green arrow: an active DR1 support reclaim (see Live signals above for when it fired).

Assumptions & data quality

Data source: yfinance
Growth (g1) source: min(revenueCAGR,cfCAGR)+trough_adj
Valuation model: DCF_OCF
Debt as % of DCF PV: 33.4%
Public economic interest: 98.0%

These are model outputs built on assumptions (growth rate, discount rate, margin of safety), not facts - trust but verify, especially for LOW cash-flow-reliability or UNKNOWN-quality rows.