PKG Packaging Corporation of America
Consumer Cyclical
Price
$256.24
Intrinsic value
$86.88
Buy price
$69.51
Discount
-194.9%
DCF walkthrough
Near-term growth (g1)1.37%
Terminal growth (g2)3.50%
Years of g1 growth4
Discount rate9.00%
Margin of safety20.00%
- Operating CF
- $1,624,100,000.00
- Total debt
- $4,404,299,776.00
- Cash & STI
- $593,800,000.00
- Shares out.
- 89,000,000
Overvalued
Intrinsic value$86.86
Buy price (with MOS)$69.49
Current price$256.24
Discount to intrinsic value-195.0%
7-step quality scorecard
ROE quality
HIGH_CONSISTENT- Average ROE
- 20.6%
- Current ROE
- 16.8%
- Minimum ROE
- 16.8%
Debt quality
MODERATE- Debt / Equity
- 0.96x
Moat proxy
MODERATE_PROXYCash-flow reliability
OK- Operating CF / Net income
- 2.36x
Technical chart
Confluence: NONE (0/3)Weekly candles, ~3 years. Yellow line: 10-week EMA. Dashed lines: Fibonacci retracement of the last 52-week swing. Green arrow: an active DR1 support reclaim.
Assumptions & data quality
- Data source
- yfinance
- Growth (g1) source
- min(cfCAGR,revenueCAGR)
- Valuation model
- DCF_OCF
- Debt as % of DCF PV
- 38.2%
- Public economic interest
- 100.0%
These are model outputs built on assumptions (growth rate, discount rate, margin of safety), not facts - trust but verify, especially for LOW cash-flow-reliability or UNKNOWN-quality rows.