PGR The Progressive Corporation
Financial Services
Price
$213.34
Intrinsic value
$116.10
Buy price
$92.88
Discount
-83.8%
DCF walkthrough
This ticker is valued with the excess-return model (bank/insurer/lender), not the operating-cash-flow DCF, so growth-rate and years-of-growth sliders don't apply - only the discount rate (used as cost of equity) and margin of safety do.
Discount rate9.00%
Margin of safety20.00%
- Operating CF
- $16,339,000,000.00
- Total debt
- $8,386,999,808.00
- Cash & STI
- $2,156,000,000.00
- Shares out.
- 584,200,000
Overvalued
Intrinsic value$116.31
Buy price (with MOS)$93.05
Current price$213.34
Discount to intrinsic value-83.4%
7-step quality scorecard
ROE quality
HIGH_VOLATILE- Average ROE
- 23.6%
- Current ROE
- 37.3%
- Minimum ROE
- 4.5%
Debt quality
CONSERVATIVE- Debt / Equity
- 0.28x
Moat proxy
MODERATE_PROXYCash-flow reliability
NOT_APPLICABLE- Operating CF / Net income
- 1.40x
Technical chart
Confluence: MODERATE (2/3)Weekly candles, ~3 years. Yellow line: 10-week EMA. Dashed lines: Fibonacci retracement of the last 52-week swing. Green arrow: an active DR1 support reclaim.
Assumptions & data quality
- Data source
- yfinance
- Growth (g1) source
- min(revenueCAGR,cfCAGR)
- Valuation model
- EXCESS_RETURN
- Debt as % of DCF PV
- 4%
- Public economic interest
- 100.0%
These are model outputs built on assumptions (growth rate, discount rate, margin of safety), not facts - trust but verify, especially for LOW cash-flow-reliability or UNKNOWN-quality rows.