HUM Humana Inc.

Healthcare

Price

$404.27

Intrinsic value

$216.88

Buy price

$173.51

Discount

-86.4%

Overvalued

Live signals (3)

Daily bars as of Oct 8, 2026

Conflicting signalsStacked bullish ↑

FS-BearishFailure Swing (bearish)Bearish ↓
Price overcut a recent swing high and closed back below it - the breakout failed and trapped the buyers who chased it.
Fired Oct 7, 20261 daily bar ago35% win rate · 0.97x profit factor
FS-BullishFailure Swing (bullish)Bullish ↑
Price undercut a recent swing low and closed back above it - the breakdown failed and trapped the sellers who chased it.
Fired Oct 2, 20264 daily bars ago37.4% win rate · 1.07x profit factor
UCUptrend ContinuationBullish ↑
A strong bullish bar closing back into a rising 20/50-SMA stack - the uptrend resuming after a pullback to the moving averages.
Fired Oct 2, 20264 daily bars ago35.8% win rate · 1x profit factor

A pattern is reported for 5 bars after it fires (the sweet-spot fill window), so an older bar count means the entry has had longer to play out - not that the signal is stronger. Win rate and profit factor are the pattern's backtested averages across the S&P 500, not a forecast for this ticker.

DCF walkthrough

Near-term growth (g1)0.00%

Terminal growth (g2)3.50%

Years of g1 growth4

Discount rate9.00%

Margin of safety20.00%

Operating CF: $2,539,000,000.00
Total debt: $14,744,000,512.00
Cash & STI: $23,871,000,576.00
Shares out.: 121,135,000

Overvalued

Intrinsic value$216.78

Buy price (with MOS)$173.42

Current price$404.27

Discount to intrinsic value-86.5%

7-step quality scorecard

ROE quality

LOW

Average ROE: 11.9%
Current ROE: 6.7%
Minimum ROE: 6.7%

Debt quality

MODERATE

Debt / Equity: 0.84x

Moat proxy

WEAK_PROXY

Cash-flow reliability

Operating CF / Net income: 1.99x

Technical chart

Confluence: NONE (0/3)

Weekly candles, ~3 years. Yellow line: 10-week EMA. Dashed lines: Fibonacci retracement of the last 52-week swing. Green arrow: an active DR1 support reclaim (see Live signals above for when it fired).

Assumptions & data quality

Data source: yfinance
Growth (g1) source: min(cfCAGR,revenueCAGR)
Valuation model: DCF_OCF
Debt as % of DCF PV: 85.4%
Public economic interest: 99.5%

These are model outputs built on assumptions (growth rate, discount rate, margin of safety), not facts - trust but verify, especially for LOW cash-flow-reliability or UNKNOWN-quality rows.