EXR Extra Space Storage Inc.

Real Estate

Price

$133.89

Intrinsic value

$7.05

Buy price

$5.64

Discount

-1799.9%

Overvalued

Live signals (1)

Daily bars as of Oct 8, 2026

DCDowntrend ContinuationBearish ↓
A strong bearish bar rejecting a falling 20/50-SMA stack - the downtrend resuming after a bounce into the moving averages.
Fired Oct 2, 20264 daily bars ago32.9% win rate · 0.89x profit factor

A pattern is reported for 5 bars after it fires (the sweet-spot fill window), so an older bar count means the entry has had longer to play out - not that the signal is stronger. Win rate and profit factor are the pattern's backtested averages across the S&P 500, not a forecast for this ticker.

DCF walkthrough

Near-term growth (g1)6.18%

Terminal growth (g2)3.50%

Years of g1 growth4

Discount rate9.00%

Margin of safety20.00%

Operating CF: $1,858,644,000.00
Total debt: $14,414,687,232.00
Cash & STI: $696,604,032.00
Shares out.: 220,362,866

Overvalued

Intrinsic value$7.06

Buy price (with MOS)$5.65

Current price$133.89

Discount to intrinsic value-1797.0%

7-step quality scorecard

ROE quality

LOW

Average ROE: 11.3%
Current ROE: 7.3%
Minimum ROE: 5.6%

Debt quality

LEVERAGED

Debt / Equity: 1.07x

Moat proxy

WEAK_PROXY

Cash-flow reliability

Operating CF / Net income: 1.94x

Technical chart

Confluence: DOWNTREND (2/3)

Weekly candles, ~3 years. Yellow line: 10-week EMA. Dashed lines: Fibonacci retracement of the last 52-week swing. Green arrow: an active DR1 support reclaim (see Live signals above for when it fired).

Assumptions & data quality

Data source: yfinance
Growth (g1) source: min(cfCAGR,revenueCAGR)+decel_adj
Valuation model: DCF_OCF
Debt as % of DCF PV: 93.8%
Public economic interest: 93.8%

These are model outputs built on assumptions (growth rate, discount rate, margin of safety), not facts - trust but verify, especially for LOW cash-flow-reliability or UNKNOWN-quality rows.