ERIE Erie Indemnity Company

Financial Services

Price

$223.22

Intrinsic value

$139.59

Buy price

$111.68

Discount

-59.9%

Overvalued [LOW CF reliability]

Live signals (1)

Daily bars as of Oct 8, 2026

FS-BearishFailure Swing (bearish)Bearish ↓
Price overcut a recent swing high and closed back below it - the breakout failed and trapped the buyers who chased it.
Fired Oct 7, 20261 daily bar ago35% win rate · 0.97x profit factor

A pattern is reported for 5 bars after it fires (the sweet-spot fill window), so an older bar count means the entry has had longer to play out - not that the signal is stronger. Win rate and profit factor are the pattern's backtested averages across the S&P 500, not a forecast for this ticker.

DCF walkthrough

Near-term growth (g1)13.31%

Terminal growth (g2)3.50%

Years of g1 growth4

Discount rate9.00%

Margin of safety20.00%

Operating CF: $686,657,000.00
Total debt: $63,157,000.00
Cash & STI: $305,008,992.00
Shares out.: 52,301,239

Overvalued [LOW CF reliability]

Intrinsic value$139.58

Buy price (with MOS)$111.67

Current price$223.22

Discount to intrinsic value-59.9%

7-step quality scorecard

ROE quality

HIGH_CONSISTENT

Average ROE: 25.5%
Current ROE: 24.5%
Minimum ROE: 20.6%

Debt quality

CONSERVATIVE

Debt / Equity: 0.03x

Moat proxy

MODERATE_PROXY

Cash-flow reliability

LOW

Operating CF / Net income: 1.19x

Technical chart

Confluence: DOWNTREND (0/3)

Weekly candles, ~3 years. Yellow line: 10-week EMA. Dashed lines: Fibonacci retracement of the last 52-week swing. Green arrow: an active DR1 support reclaim (see Live signals above for when it fired).

Assumptions & data quality

Data source: yfinance
Growth (g1) source: revenueCAGR
Valuation model: DCF_OCF
Debt as % of DCF PV: 0.9%
Public economic interest: 100.0%

These are model outputs built on assumptions (growth rate, discount rate, margin of safety), not facts - trust but verify, especially for LOW cash-flow-reliability or UNKNOWN-quality rows.