COP ConocoPhillips

Energy

Price

$129.35

Intrinsic value

$109.93

Buy price

$87.94

Discount

-17.7%

Overvalued

Live signals (1)

Daily bars as of Oct 8, 2026

UCUptrend ContinuationBullish ↑
A strong bullish bar closing back into a rising 20/50-SMA stack - the uptrend resuming after a pullback to the moving averages.
Fired Oct 6, 20262 daily bars ago35.8% win rate · 1x profit factor

A pattern is reported for 5 bars after it fires (the sweet-spot fill window), so an older bar count means the entry has had longer to play out - not that the signal is stronger. Win rate and profit factor are the pattern's backtested averages across the S&P 500, not a forecast for this ticker.

DCF walkthrough

Near-term growth (g1)0.00%

Terminal growth (g2)3.50%

Years of g1 growth4

Discount rate9.00%

Margin of safety20.00%

Operating CF: $21,925,000,000.00
Total debt: $23,289,999,360.00
Cash & STI: $7,692,000,256.00
Shares out.: 1,214,255,000

Overvalued

Intrinsic value$109.93

Buy price (with MOS)$87.94

Current price$129.35

Discount to intrinsic value-17.7%

7-step quality scorecard

ROE quality

HIGH_CONSISTENT

Average ROE: 22.0%
Current ROE: 12.4%
Minimum ROE: 12.4%

Debt quality

CONSERVATIVE

Debt / Equity: 0.36x

Moat proxy

MODERATE_PROXY

Cash-flow reliability

Operating CF / Net income: 2.37x

Technical chart

Confluence: NONE (0/3)

Weekly candles, ~3 years. Yellow line: 10-week EMA. Dashed lines: Fibonacci retracement of the last 52-week swing. Green arrow: an active DR1 support reclaim (see Live signals above for when it fired).

Assumptions & data quality

Data source: yfinance
Growth (g1) source: min(cfCAGR,revenueCAGR)
Valuation model: DCF_OCF
Debt as % of DCF PV: 15.6%
Public economic interest: 100.0%

These are model outputs built on assumptions (growth rate, discount rate, margin of safety), not facts - trust but verify, especially for LOW cash-flow-reliability or UNKNOWN-quality rows.