CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
Consumer Cyclical
Price
$30.90
Intrinsic value
$12.41
Buy price
$9.93
Discount
-149.0%
Live signals
Daily bars as of Oct 8, 2026Nothing firing right now - no PAM pattern in the last 5 daily bars, and no DR1 support reclaim in the last 5 weekly bars. Technical confluence is DOWNTREND (0/3) - see the chart below.
DCF walkthrough
Near-term growth (g1)8.38%
Terminal growth (g2)3.50%
Years of g1 growth4
Discount rate9.00%
Margin of safety20.00%
- Operating CF
- $2,327,527,000.00
- Total debt
- $5,419,195,904.00
- Cash & STI
- $677,857,024.00
- Shares out.
- 1,279,064,000
Overvalued
Intrinsic value$12.41
Buy price (with MOS)$9.93
Current price$30.90
Discount to intrinsic value-149.1%
7-step quality scorecard
ROE quality
HIGH_CONSISTENT- Average ROE
- 43.6%
- Current ROE
- 54.3%
- Minimum ROE
- 38.0%
Debt quality
LEVERAGED- Debt / Equity
- 1.91x
Moat proxy
STRONG_PROXYCash-flow reliability
OK- Operating CF / Net income
- 1.64x
Technical chart
Confluence: DOWNTREND (0/3)Weekly candles, ~3 years. Yellow line: 10-week EMA. Dashed lines: Fibonacci retracement of the last 52-week swing. Green arrow: an active DR1 support reclaim (see Live signals above for when it fired).
Assumptions & data quality
- Data source
- yfinance
- Growth (g1) source
- min(revenueCAGR,cfCAGR)+decel_adj
- Valuation model
- DCF_OCF
- Debt as % of DCF PV
- 26.3%
- Public economic interest
- 100.0%
These are model outputs built on assumptions (growth rate, discount rate, margin of safety), not facts - trust but verify, especially for LOW cash-flow-reliability or UNKNOWN-quality rows.