CIEN Ciena Corporation

Technology

Price

$443.65

Intrinsic value

$61.72

Buy price

$49.37

Discount

-618.8%

Overvalued

Live signals (1)

Daily bars as of Oct 8, 2026

URUp-move ReversalBearish ↓
A swing high right after a sharp up-flush, with the bar closing weak - buyers exhausted at the top of the run.
Fired Oct 8, 2026on the latest daily bar34.1% win rate · 0.92x profit factor

A pattern is reported for 5 bars after it fires (the sweet-spot fill window), so an older bar count means the entry has had longer to play out - not that the signal is stronger. Win rate and profit factor are the pattern's backtested averages across the S&P 500, not a forecast for this ticker.

DCF walkthrough

Near-term growth (g1)9.50%

Terminal growth (g2)3.50%

Years of g1 growth4

Discount rate9.00%

Margin of safety20.00%

Operating CF: $1,054,683,000.00
Total debt: $3,285,876,992.00
Cash & STI: $2,630,000,896.00
Shares out.: 145,967,000

Overvalued

Intrinsic value$61.72

Buy price (with MOS)$49.38

Current price$443.65

Discount to intrinsic value-618.8%

7-step quality scorecard

ROE quality

LOW

Average ROE: 5.5%
Current ROE: 4.5%
Minimum ROE: 3.0%

Debt quality

LEVERAGED

Debt / Equity: 1.20x

Moat proxy

MODERATE_PROXY

Cash-flow reliability

Operating CF / Net income: 1.61x

Technical chart

Confluence: WEAK (1/3)

Weekly candles, ~3 years. Yellow line: 10-week EMA. Dashed lines: Fibonacci retracement of the last 52-week swing. Green arrow: an active DR1 support reclaim (see Live signals above for when it fired).

Assumptions & data quality

Data source: yfinance
Growth (g1) source: revenueCAGR
Valuation model: DCF_OCF
Debt as % of DCF PV: 34%
Public economic interest: 100.0%

These are model outputs built on assumptions (growth rate, discount rate, margin of safety), not facts - trust but verify, especially for LOW cash-flow-reliability or UNKNOWN-quality rows.