CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
Basic Materials
Price
$116.02
Intrinsic value
$77.26
Buy price
$61.81
Discount
-50.2%
Live signals
Daily bars as of Oct 8, 2026Nothing firing right now - no PAM pattern in the last 5 daily bars, and no DR1 support reclaim in the last 5 weekly bars. Technical confluence is DOWNTREND (0/3) - see the chart below.
DCF walkthrough
Near-term growth (g1)0.00%
Terminal growth (g2)3.50%
Years of g1 growth4
Discount rate9.00%
Margin of safety20.00%
- Operating CF
- $2,977,000,000.00
- Total debt
- $3,612,999,936.00
- Cash & STI
- $2,480,000,000.00
- Shares out.
- 153,900,000
Overvalued
Intrinsic value$77.23
Buy price (with MOS)$61.79
Current price$116.02
Discount to intrinsic value-50.2%
7-step quality scorecard
ROE quality
HIGH_CONSISTENT- Average ROE
- 36.9%
- Current ROE
- 30.1%
- Minimum ROE
- 24.4%
Debt quality
MODERATE- Debt / Equity
- 0.75x
Moat proxy
MODERATE_PROXYCash-flow reliability
OK- Operating CF / Net income
- 1.42x
Technical chart
Confluence: DOWNTREND (0/3)Weekly candles, ~3 years. Yellow line: 10-week EMA. Dashed lines: Fibonacci retracement of the last 52-week swing. Green arrow: an active DR1 support reclaim (see Live signals above for when it fired).
Assumptions & data quality
- Data source
- yfinance
- Growth (g1) source
- min(revenueCAGR,cfCAGR)
- Valuation model
- DCF_OCF
- Debt as % of DCF PV
- 17.8%
- Public economic interest
- 62.2%
These are model outputs built on assumptions (growth rate, discount rate, margin of safety), not facts - trust but verify, especially for LOW cash-flow-reliability or UNKNOWN-quality rows.