CCL Carnival Corporation Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical

Price

$26.58

Intrinsic value

$29.73

Buy price

$23.79

Discount

10.6%

Fair (no MOS)

Live signals (4)

Daily bars as of Oct 8, 2026

Conflicting signalsStacked bullish ↑

FS-BullishFailure Swing (bullish)Bullish ↑
Price undercut a recent swing low and closed back above it - the breakdown failed and trapped the sellers who chased it.
Fired Oct 8, 2026on the latest daily bar37.4% win rate · 1.07x profit factor
URUp-move ReversalBearish ↓
A swing high right after a sharp up-flush, with the bar closing weak - buyers exhausted at the top of the run.
Fired Oct 7, 20261 daily bar ago34.1% win rate · 0.92x profit factor
IBB-UpsideInside Bar Breakout (upside)Bullish ↑
An inside bar coiling inside a strong bullish mother bar, with price holding above the 50-day SMA - a pause before the next push up.
Fired Oct 7, 20261 daily bar ago29% win rate · 0.7x profit factor
DR1Support reclaim (weekly)Still unbroken
Price opened below a confirmed pivot-low support and closed back above it - the weekly-chart support reclaim (“Bar A”) DR1 screens for.
Fired Sep 28, 20261 weekly bar agoConfluence: DOWNTREND (2/3)

A pattern is reported for 5 bars after it fires (the sweet-spot fill window), so an older bar count means the entry has had longer to play out - not that the signal is stronger. Win rate and profit factor are the pattern's backtested averages across the S&P 500, not a forecast for this ticker.

DCF walkthrough

Near-term growth (g1)11.03%

Terminal growth (g2)3.50%

Years of g1 growth4

Discount rate9.00%

Margin of safety20.00%

Operating CF: $6,794,000,000.00
Total debt: $25,162,000,384.00
Cash & STI: $1,220,000,000.00
Shares out.: 1,388,000,000

Fair (no MOS)

Intrinsic value$29.74

Buy price (with MOS)$23.79

Current price$26.58

Discount to intrinsic value10.6%

7-step quality scorecard

ROE quality

LOW

Average ROE: -11.0%
Current ROE: 22.5%
Minimum ROE: -86.3%

Debt quality

LEVERAGED

Debt / Equity: 2.05x

Moat proxy

WEAK_PROXY

Cash-flow reliability

Operating CF / Net income: 2.17x

Technical chart

Confluence: DOWNTREND (2/3)

Weekly candles, ~3 years. Yellow line: 10-week EMA. Dashed lines: Fibonacci retracement of the last 52-week swing. Green arrow: an active DR1 support reclaim (see Live signals above for when it fired).

Assumptions & data quality

Data source: yfinance
Growth (g1) source: min(revenueCAGR,cfCAGR)+trough_adj
Valuation model: DCF_OCF
Debt as % of DCF PV: 38.6%
Public economic interest: 100.0%

These are model outputs built on assumptions (growth rate, discount rate, margin of safety), not facts - trust but verify, especially for LOW cash-flow-reliability or UNKNOWN-quality rows.