AVB AvalonBay Communities, Inc.
Real Estate
Price
$182.93
Intrinsic value
$29.94
Buy price
$23.95
Discount
-510.9%
DCF walkthrough
Near-term growth (g1)5.45%
Terminal growth (g2)3.50%
Years of g1 growth4
Discount rate9.00%
Margin of safety20.00%
- Operating CF
- $1,660,462,000.00
- Total debt
- $9,187,223,552.00
- Cash & STI
- $90,121,000.00
- Shares out.
- 141,834,769
Overvalued
Intrinsic value$29.95
Buy price (with MOS)$23.96
Current price$182.93
Discount to intrinsic value-510.8%
7-step quality scorecard
ROE quality
LOW- Average ROE
- 9.0%
- Current ROE
- 9.1%
- Minimum ROE
- 7.9%
Debt quality
MODERATE- Debt / Equity
- 0.79x
Moat proxy
MODERATE_PROXYCash-flow reliability
OK- Operating CF / Net income
- 1.62x
Technical chart
Confluence: MODERATE (2/3)Weekly candles, ~3 years. Yellow line: 10-week EMA. Dashed lines: Fibonacci retracement of the last 52-week swing. Green arrow: an active DR1 support reclaim.
Assumptions & data quality
- Data source
- yfinance
- Growth (g1) source
- min(revenueCAGR,cfCAGR)
- Valuation model
- DCF_OCF
- Debt as % of DCF PV
- 68.4%
- Public economic interest
- 98.1%
These are model outputs built on assumptions (growth rate, discount rate, margin of safety), not facts - trust but verify, especially for LOW cash-flow-reliability or UNKNOWN-quality rows.