APA APA Corporation

Energy

Price

$44.10

Intrinsic value

$67.22

Buy price

$53.78

Discount

34.4%

Undervalued [LOW CF reliability]

Live signals (2)

Daily bars as of Oct 8, 2026

Conflicting signals

FS-BearishFailure Swing (bearish)Bearish ↓
Price overcut a recent swing high and closed back below it - the breakout failed and trapped the buyers who chased it.
Fired Oct 7, 20261 daily bar ago35% win rate · 0.97x profit factor
UCUptrend ContinuationBullish ↑
A strong bullish bar closing back into a rising 20/50-SMA stack - the uptrend resuming after a pullback to the moving averages.
Fired Oct 6, 20262 daily bars ago35.8% win rate · 1x profit factor

A pattern is reported for 5 bars after it fires (the sweet-spot fill window), so an older bar count means the entry has had longer to play out - not that the signal is stronger. Win rate and profit factor are the pattern's backtested averages across the S&P 500, not a forecast for this ticker.

DCF walkthrough

Near-term growth (g1)0.00%

Terminal growth (g2)3.50%

Years of g1 growth4

Discount rate9.00%

Margin of safety20.00%

Operating CF: $4,528,000,000.00
Total debt: $3,880,999,936.00
Cash & STI: $444,000,000.00
Shares out.: 354,000,000

Undervalued [LOW CF reliability]

Intrinsic value$67.22

Buy price (with MOS)$53.78

Current price$44.10

Discount to intrinsic value34.4%

7-step quality scorecard

ROE quality

HIGH_DISTORTED

Average ROE: 249.6%
Current ROE: 23.5%
Minimum ROE: 15.2%

Debt quality

MODERATE

Debt / Equity: 0.64x

Moat proxy

WEAK_PROXY

Cash-flow reliability

LOW

Operating CF / Net income: 2.70x

Technical chart

Confluence: NONE (0/3)

Weekly candles, ~3 years. Yellow line: 10-week EMA. Dashed lines: Fibonacci retracement of the last 52-week swing. Green arrow: an active DR1 support reclaim (see Live signals above for when it fired).

Assumptions & data quality

Data source: yfinance
Growth (g1) source: min(revenueCAGR,cfCAGR)
Valuation model: DCF_OCF
Debt as % of DCF PV: 12.6%
Public economic interest: 87.0%

These are model outputs built on assumptions (growth rate, discount rate, margin of safety), not facts - trust but verify, especially for LOW cash-flow-reliability or UNKNOWN-quality rows.