AMGN Amgen Inc.

Healthcare

Price

$402.60

Intrinsic value

$80.45

Buy price

$64.36

Discount

-400.4%

Overvalued

Live signals (1)

Daily bars as of Oct 8, 2026

DCDowntrend ContinuationBearish ↓
A strong bearish bar rejecting a falling 20/50-SMA stack - the downtrend resuming after a bounce into the moving averages.
Fired Oct 2, 20264 daily bars ago32.9% win rate · 0.89x profit factor

A pattern is reported for 5 bars after it fires (the sweet-spot fill window), so an older bar count means the entry has had longer to play out - not that the signal is stronger. Win rate and profit factor are the pattern's backtested averages across the S&P 500, not a forecast for this ticker.

DCF walkthrough

Near-term growth (g1)0.81%

Terminal growth (g2)3.50%

Years of g1 growth4

Discount rate9.00%

Margin of safety20.00%

Operating CF: $12,478,000,000.00
Total debt: $57,303,998,464.00
Cash & STI: $13,989,000,192.00
Shares out.: 544,000,000

Overvalued

Intrinsic value$80.47

Buy price (with MOS)$64.38

Current price$402.60

Discount to intrinsic value-400.3%

7-step quality scorecard

ROE quality

HIGH_DISTORTED

Average ROE: 111.4%
Current ROE: 89.1%
Minimum ROE: 69.6%

Debt quality

LEVERAGED

Debt / Equity: 6.62x

Moat proxy

WEAK_PROXY

Cash-flow reliability

Operating CF / Net income: 1.43x

Technical chart

Confluence: WEAK (1/3)

Weekly candles, ~3 years. Yellow line: 10-week EMA. Dashed lines: Fibonacci retracement of the last 52-week swing. Green arrow: an active DR1 support reclaim (see Live signals above for when it fired).

Assumptions & data quality

Data source: yfinance
Growth (g1) source: min(cfCAGR,revenueCAGR)
Valuation model: DCF_OCF
Debt as % of DCF PV: 65.8%
Public economic interest: 100.0%

These are model outputs built on assumptions (growth rate, discount rate, margin of safety), not facts - trust but verify, especially for LOW cash-flow-reliability or UNKNOWN-quality rows.