ALL The Allstate Corporation

• FS-BearishFailure Swing (bearish)Bearish ↓

  Price overcut a recent swing high and closed back below it - the breakout failed and trapped the buyers who chased it.

  Fired Oct 7, 20261 daily bar ago35% win rate · 0.97x profit factor
• FS-Bearish-Near_200SMAFailure Swing (bearish) at the 200-SMABearish ↓

  Price overcut a recent swing high and closed back below it - the breakout failed and trapped the buyers who chased it. Fired right at the 200-day SMA.

  Fired Oct 7, 20261 daily bar ago34.4% win rate · 0.92x profit factor
• FS-BullishFailure Swing (bullish)Bullish ↑

  Price undercut a recent swing low and closed back above it - the breakdown failed and trapped the sellers who chased it.

  Fired Oct 6, 20262 daily bars ago37.4% win rate · 1.07x profit factor
• FS-Bullish-Near_200SMAFailure Swing (bullish) at the 200-SMABullish ↑

  Price undercut a recent swing low and closed back above it - the breakdown failed and trapped the sellers who chased it. Fired right at the 200-day SMA.

  Fired Oct 6, 20262 daily bars ago36.7% win rate · 1.04x profit factor

A pattern is reported for 5 bars after it fires (the sweet-spot fill window), so an older bar count means the entry has had longer to play out - not that the signal is stronger. Win rate and profit factor are the pattern's backtested averages across the S&P 500, not a forecast for this ticker.

This ticker is valued with the excess-return model (bank/insurer/lender), not the operating-cash-flow DCF, so growth-rate and years-of-growth sliders don't apply - only the discount rate (used as cost of equity) and margin of safety do.

7-step quality scorecard

Weekly candles, ~3 years. Yellow line: 10-week EMA. Dashed lines: Fibonacci retracement of the last 52-week swing. Green arrow: an active DR1 support reclaim (see Live signals above for when it fired).