ALGN Align Technology, Inc.

Healthcare

Price

$141.45

Intrinsic value

$88.92

Buy price

$71.14

Discount

-59.1%

Overvalued

Live signals (1)

Daily bars as of Oct 8, 2026

FS-BearishFailure Swing (bearish)Bearish ↓
Price overcut a recent swing high and closed back below it - the breakout failed and trapped the buyers who chased it.
Fired Oct 2, 20264 daily bars ago35% win rate · 0.97x profit factor

A pattern is reported for 5 bars after it fires (the sweet-spot fill window), so an older bar count means the entry has had longer to play out - not that the signal is stronger. Win rate and profit factor are the pattern's backtested averages across the S&P 500, not a forecast for this ticker.

DCF walkthrough

Near-term growth (g1)1.41%

Terminal growth (g2)3.50%

Years of g1 growth4

Discount rate9.00%

Margin of safety20.00%

Operating CF: $755,696,000.00
Total debt: $120,842,000.00
Cash & STI: $1,102,590,976.00
Shares out.: 71,520,000

Overvalued

Intrinsic value$88.91

Buy price (with MOS)$71.13

Current price$141.45

Discount to intrinsic value-59.1%

7-step quality scorecard

ROE quality

LOW

Average ROE: 10.8%
Current ROE: 10.1%
Minimum ROE: 10.0%

Debt quality

CONSERVATIVE

Debt / Equity: 0.03x

Moat proxy

WEAK_PROXY

Cash-flow reliability

Operating CF / Net income: 1.83x

Technical chart

Confluence: DOWNTREND (0/3)

Weekly candles, ~3 years. Yellow line: 10-week EMA. Dashed lines: Fibonacci retracement of the last 52-week swing. Green arrow: an active DR1 support reclaim (see Live signals above for when it fired).

Assumptions & data quality

Data source: yfinance
Growth (g1) source: min(cfCAGR,revenueCAGR)
Valuation model: DCF_OCF
Debt as % of DCF PV: 2.2%
Public economic interest: 100.0%

These are model outputs built on assumptions (growth rate, discount rate, margin of safety), not facts - trust but verify, especially for LOW cash-flow-reliability or UNKNOWN-quality rows.