ABNB Airbnb, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

Price

$160.39

Intrinsic value

$84.56

Buy price

$67.65

Discount

-89.7%

Overvalued

Live signals (3)

Daily bars as of Oct 8, 2026

Conflicting signalsStacked bearish ↓

FS-BullishFailure Swing (bullish)Bullish ↑
Price undercut a recent swing low and closed back above it - the breakdown failed and trapped the sellers who chased it.
Fired Oct 8, 2026on the latest daily bar37.4% win rate · 1.07x profit factor
FS-BearishFailure Swing (bearish)Bearish ↓
Price overcut a recent swing high and closed back below it - the breakout failed and trapped the buyers who chased it.
Fired Oct 6, 20262 daily bars ago35% win rate · 0.97x profit factor
DCDowntrend ContinuationBearish ↓
A strong bearish bar rejecting a falling 20/50-SMA stack - the downtrend resuming after a bounce into the moving averages.
Fired Oct 6, 20262 daily bars ago32.9% win rate · 0.89x profit factor

A pattern is reported for 5 bars after it fires (the sweet-spot fill window), so an older bar count means the entry has had longer to play out - not that the signal is stronger. Win rate and profit factor are the pattern's backtested averages across the S&P 500, not a forecast for this ticker.

DCF walkthrough

Near-term growth (g1)6.74%

Terminal growth (g2)3.50%

Years of g1 growth4

Discount rate9.00%

Margin of safety20.00%

Operating CF: $4,860,000,000.00
Total debt: $2,496,000,000.00
Cash & STI: $12,069,000,192.00
Shares out.: 597,000,000

Overvalued

Intrinsic value$84.56

Buy price (with MOS)$67.65

Current price$160.39

Discount to intrinsic value-89.7%

7-step quality scorecard

ROE quality

HIGH_CONSISTENT

Average ROE: 38.7%
Current ROE: 30.6%
Minimum ROE: 30.6%

Debt quality

CONSERVATIVE

Debt / Equity: 0.30x

Moat proxy

STRONG_PROXY

Cash-flow reliability

Operating CF / Net income: 1.81x

Technical chart

Confluence: MODERATE (2/3)

Weekly candles, ~3 years. Yellow line: 10-week EMA. Dashed lines: Fibonacci retracement of the last 52-week swing. Green arrow: an active DR1 support reclaim (see Live signals above for when it fired).

Assumptions & data quality

Data source: yfinance
Growth (g1) source: min(cfCAGR,revenueCAGR)+decel_adj
Valuation model: DCF_OCF
Debt as % of DCF PV: 6.1%
Public economic interest: 100.0%

These are model outputs built on assumptions (growth rate, discount rate, margin of safety), not facts - trust but verify, especially for LOW cash-flow-reliability or UNKNOWN-quality rows.